Isn’t Senior Housing a safe bet, with so many people getting older?

It is certainly true that there are more people aging, and there is expected to be a solid uptick in the elderly population about nine years from now as the baby boomers reach their mid-70s.  But an increase in population does not guarantee the success of any business.  Consider that in 2008 there were more people living in the U.S. than ever before, but the housing market crashed anyway.  It was not because there were no people wanting to buy houses.  It was because the financing industry was collapsing, and more people were left with no way to pay for a house.  The Senior Housing industry faces many pressures as there are changes to how the government and private insurance providers are able and willing to pay for Senior Housing.  In fact, right now, the Nursing Home segment of this market is facing many closures, despite the aging population, as more and more seniors are finding themselves unable to pay for Nursing Home care.  And it seems even more risky to build a facility here saddled with additional assessments, when there are competitors right down the street that do not have this added expense.  Finally, with Cortona and Westmont close by, and a third assisted living facility planned for the Brentwood Golf Course driving range location, it seems risky to add so much more capacity, 560 units, by building a fourth and fifth facility right here in the same location.